Win total average: 52.9 | Projected: 48.4 | Play: BET UNDER (Win total average based on lines from six sportsbooks.) Western Conference Let's look at each team and see where the projections would have me bet their over/under. For example, as you'll read below, the Clippers and Pelicans projections are firmly in the middle of their real potential outcomes. One thing the projections cannot do is accurately represent swings based on ideal outcomes. The result is a fairly clear projection at the top and a messy middle of teams that likely swing wildly in one direction or another based on health. This reflects the truncated, high-parity state of the league and the West in particular. So the No.1 seed last season should have won just one more game than my No.1 here. Based on point differential, they were expected to win 50.1 games. The Grizzlies are missing Ja Morant for 25 games and Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke for the entire season.ĭenver overperformed their Pythagorean expectation last year. That's unlikely, but bear in mind only two teams, Denver and Memphis, finished over 50 last season. You'll notice I don't project any team to have over 50 wins this season.
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